I created a simple way to predict which business types will do well over the next 5 years. Looking at the results does line up well with retail news. For example, cosmetics and shaving contact lenses, contraceptives, hair loss, anti-aging, and skin care all fit well into a self-focused category. These businesses are predicted to do well and challenger brands, as well as market leaders, appeared to be holding their own. Some of the large incumbents are also a challenging the status quo and redefining how these products are sold.
While some of the categories at the bottom of the list are challenging, no one is immune to disruption or opportunity. Such topics as luggage, socks, and bedding all face uncertain futures. For example, bedding is ripe for disruption once distribution is solved for the better. Furniture feels like a difficult topic on many levels. Some of the market leaders are not performing well as lifestyle habits change in America.
While this data is not conclusive or tactical it may give insight into where to place bets for venture capital. Who is weaker could be disrupted with the technology core or investing in the top of the scale can see big revenue opportunities where are you see gaps in the market.